The Week Ahead from Exclusive Analysis: Demonstrations in Swaziland and Sudan

Swaziland

Risks to government and diplomatic assets, and expatriates, especially South Africans, will rise in Mbabane and Manzini over the next week.

Event: On September 9, 2011, opposition supporters, activists and union members are expected to hold demonstrations numbering thousands of people in urban areas across Swaziland.

Implications: Opposition to King Mswati II's rule has intensified over recent months. The Swaziland United Democratic Front is likely to stage further demonstrations in the capital Mbabane and Manzini, Swaziland's largest city, as well as provincial towns such as Siteki over the next week. The government's probable inability to pay civil servant wages this month is likely to trigger widespread nationwide demonstrations for political change.

Demonstrations are likely to turn increasingly violent, targeting government assets in Mbabane as well as diplomatic and commercial property. South African assets and expatriates will be at highest risk due to the South African government's perceived continued support for Mswati. Large South African retail stores and banks, such as Shoprite, Pick'n Pay, Absa and Standard Bank, as well as South African diplomatic property, will be at highest risk. Meanwhile, there will be high risk of collateral damage as security forces confront the demonstrators with rubber bullets and water cannon, with the use of live ammunition is becoming increasingly likely.

Sudan

A planned march from Omdurman to Khartoum on September 9 will pose high risks to individuals, but foreigners are unlikely to be targeted.

Event: On September 9, opposition parties plan to hold a march from the Al-Mahdi mosque in Omdurman to the presidential palace in Khartoum to demand a resolution of the conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states.

Implications: Riot police are likely to react swiftly to put down the demonstration. In previous anti-government protests in March 2011, protests were violently suppressed by the police and at least 50 people were arrested. While the government held talks with the opposition on September 4 to discuss the security situation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, the recent rapprochement between the northern opposition National Umma Party and the South Sudanese government has increased the unease of the Sudanese government. Risks of injury and detention to individuals attending the march will be high, though expatriates are unlikely to be specifically targeted. There will be a moderate risk of collateral damage to shops and government property, but police intervention will likely contain the protest within Omdurman.
 

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