Election Violence Likely in Guinea-Bissau and Senegal

Guinea-Bissau: an outdated voter roll is likely to trigger further protests in Bissau ahead of the March 18 presidential elections.

Event: On February 20, around 200 youths demonstrated in front of the electoral commission (CNI) in downtown Bissau to demand their inclusion on the voter register for the March 18 presidential elections. As the CNI is unlikely to accede to demands to revise the voter list due to time constraints, further protests are likely in the coming weeks in Bissau, posing a moderate risk of injury. Risks to commercial properties are low.

Implications: The February 20 protest was allegedly led by an opposition candidate to the presidency, Alfa Djalo of the African National Congress (CNA), who claimed that 100,000 young citizens who are of voting age are being excluded from the voter roll.

The sentiment of exclusion, coupled with difficult socio-economic conditions and poor job and education prospects, will be drivers of protest around the March 18 elections. Protesters are likely to set roadblocks and target government buildings in central Bissau, such as the CNI office, with minor vandalism, but direct targeting of commercial assets is unlikely. Future protests will pose a moderate risk of injury to participants and bystanders. On February 20, the military broke up the protest, firing live ammunition shots in the air; demonstrators and policemen were injured, and several demonstrators arrested.

Senegal: risk of violent protests in urban areas, including Dakar, is high around February 26 polls, and will rise if Wade wins in the first round.

Event: The rejection by the opposition and civil society movements of President Wade's participation in the February 26 presidential elections indicates a high risk of violent demonstrations around the election, particularly in Dakar, Kaolack, Podor, Saint-Louis, Tambacounda and Thies. Protesters are likely to cause damage to government, political party, public utility and transport assets, including arson attacks, while the use of live ammunition by security forces and fighting between rival party supporters poses a high risk of death and injury to individuals.

Implications: Opposition supporters have mobilised under the M23 opposition movement and the Y'en a Marre youth civil society group, intensifying protests against Wade's decision to run for a third term. Confrontations between protesters and security forces have resulted in at least six civilian deaths.

Since February 15, there have been continuous protests in Dakar's Plateau business district, and other urban areas, while security forces have violently prevented protesters from organising rallies at Independence Square, located close to the presidential palace. On polling day, there will also be a high risk of violent confrontations between rival party supporters. If protests escalate, which is particularly likely if President Wade manages to win in the first round, excessive use of force by the security forces is likely.

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