The Week Ahead from Exclusive Analysis

Cape Verde

The second round of the presidential elections on 21 August raises risks of localised political protests in the capital Praia. 

Event: On 21 August, the run-off vote for the presidential elections will take place between opposition candidate Manuel Inocêncio Sousa, who won 37.4% of the votes in the first round, and ruling party leader Jorge Carlos Fonseca, who obtained 33.3%.

Implications: International observers deemed the first round of the elections, held on 7 August, fair. Nevertheless, allegations of vote-buying and technical failures were raised by the opposition and local media. Cape Verde has little history of violent political protests. However, the socio-economic vulnerability of the population and their dissatisfaction with the current government increases the likelihood of anti-government protests once the results of the vote start coming out. Such protests would likely be small-scale and pose minor risks of collateral damage to commercial property, primarily fish processing plants and light manufacturing firms, or tourism, which contributes around 20% of the country's GDP.

Liberia

Risks of violent unrest in Monrovia are high over the coming month if the constitutional referendum on 23 August passes.

Event: On 23 August, a constitutional referendum will be held on the proposed changes to the organisation of national elections, slated for October 2011.

Implications: The opposition opposes the proposed constitutional changes, which it views as an attempt by the government to change the constitution in favour of President Johnson Sirleaf and her Unity Party. The likely passage of the constitutional amendments will heighten risks of localised fighting between rival partisan supporters in Monrovia and cities in opposition strongholds, particularly in the north, over the coming month.

Firms with operations in Nimba, Bong, Lofa and Monteserrado counties, such as BSG Resources, ArcelorMittal and Vale, face heightened risks of disruption to operations and property damage as opposition candidates are likely to use mercenaries returning from Ivory Coast and exploit ethnic rivalries. Foreign expatriates will be at moderate risk of collateral harm, while West African migrants will likely be targets for harassment. Though the Liberian Army and the police are poorly equipped and trained, the continued presence of the UN peacebuilding mission (UNMIL) will likely mitigate escalation risks.

Angola

Military operations against FLEC reduce the risk of attacks against oil industry supply convoys in Cabinda. 

On 31 July, three battalions of the Angolan Army (FAA) captured 23 members of the separatist FLEC (Enclave of Cabinda Liberation Front) rebel group near Konde Kavunga, southern Cabinda, as a detachment of 56 rebels were trying to move towards their northern base in Miconje. FAA units pursued the group into DRC territory and started fighting FLEC rebels in the Tshela area of the Bas-Congo province.

Incursions have in the past strained bilateral relations, as have a maritime border dispute affecting offshore oil blocks and frequent Angolan expulsions of Congolese diamond mine workers since 2008. However, while further Angolan incursions are probable in the one-year outlook, an escalation into large-scale cross-border fighting or interstate war is unlikely. On 4 August, DRC President Joseph Kabila met with Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos in Luanda, following which Congolese media reported a notably calmer situation in Tshela, with the withdrawal of Angolan forces from the area. The DRC's decision in late 2010 to postpone the submission of the border dispute to international arbitration until 2014 was also positive for bilateral relations. It is therefore likely that the DRC will tolerate Angolan incursions and be less permissive regarding FLEC finding refuge on Congolese territory.

Additionally, the 31 July military operation resulted from a tip-off from the local population to the FAA, indicating waning popular support for FLEC actions that will reduce FLEC's capabilities to stage armed attacks. Two separate attacks in 2010 near Conde Grande saw FLEC ambushes of FAA troops escorting oil companies' supply convoys en route to the Republic of Congo. However, the heavy FAA presence in Cabinda has now confined FLEC, which is estimated to comprise no more than 150 troops, to forest bases in the north and north-east of the province.

Most foreign oil companies in Cabinda, such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, Total, Eni and CNOOC, also operate off-shore and are limited to the oil terminal at Malongo, where FLEC has neither the intention nor the capability to stage attacks. FLEC furthermore poses a low threat to the Cabinda port in Caio Litoral, whose planned expansion will also decrease the opportunity for attack against cargo coming from the Republic of Congo. However, the absence of a political dialogue and discontent over human rights abuses committed by FAA troops in the province will impede a decisive resolution of the conflict in the one-year outlook.