Beyond the ICC and Kenya’s Divisive Politics

The last has not been heard about the implications of the recent confirmation of charges against four prominent Kenyan politicians at the International Criminal Court (ICC). Two of those involved – Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Cabinet Secretary Francis Mathaura – have just stepped down from roles in the Government of National Unity (GNU). However, Kenyatta has retained his role as Deputy Prime Minister and, along with former Higher Education Minister and fellow suspect William Ruto, may still be vying for presidency.

Keep calm and carry on?

It is not clear at the moment what repercussions the on-going trial will have on Kenyatta and Ruto’s political ambitions, and commentators on both sides of the fence have been quick to wade in, agreeing, however, that politicians and citizens must ensure situation does not escalate into conflict.

Some observers, such as Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs Mutula Kilonzo, have claimed Kenyatta and Ruto are now ineligible to run given the limits set by chapter six of the new constitution regarding leadership and integrity. However, both Kenyatta and Ruto continue to maintain their innocence and have vowed to go ahead with their campaigns. And Kenya’s Attorney General Githu Muigai has suggested nothing can be officially decided until the pending appeal is determined. This view is also held by the Constitution Implementation Commission whose chairperson recently stated that Article 99 of the Constitution which sets out conditions under which a candidate can be disqualified does not bar Kenyatta and Ruto from seeking Kenya’s highest political office.

Fission or fusion?

Divisive politics have been a reoccurring feature of Kenyan politics. The Kikuyus and the Kalenjins, for instance, have a long history of intertribal antagonism. They were also the two main tribes that were involved in the post-election violence in 2007 especially within Rift Valley Province.

However, political expediency at this time may force them to consider forgiving and forgetting to realign towards a common goal. Kenyatta is the leader of the Kikuyus and Ruto is considered to be the de-facto leader of the Kalenjins. As it stands now in their current travails, both men may decide to put their differences aside to team up against Prime Minster Raila Odinga, who is seen by many as a the main beneficiary of the ongoing situation.

Another relevant factor is Mathaura who just stepped aside as Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Public Service and who is a Meru born top bureaucrat. His ethnic group is considered as an ancestral cousin of the Kikuyus. Going by that relationship, they could also be potential allies during the next political season.

One other interesting scenario is the possible rise of Stephen Kalonzo, the current vice president, in the polls. Though he is free of any political baggage in theory, many Kenyans see him as a political opportunist. Kalonzo, who is from Kamba tribe (which constitutes about 11% of the population), ran for the presidency in 2007, and the 879,899 votes he garnered contributed in denying front-runners Odinga and President Kibaki an outright win.

Many supporters of Odinga, who are largely from the Luo ethnic group, and other Kenyans, however, consider Kalonzo a political traitor and this may undermine his attempt to gain the presidency. But despite this, it will be politically perilous to dismiss a man of his stature and political experience.

Forward together

A conservative segment within the Kenyan political elite, are sceptical about the ICC and perceive it as a tool Western powers use to pave the way for their preferred candidate. Some consider Raila Odinga a ‘puppet of the West’ and even point to the fact that part of US President Barack Obama’s ancestry is traceable to the Luo ethnic group. They believe that the four Kenyan suspects could have gotten a fairer trial back home where recent reforms seem to have produced an improved and seemingly impartial judiciary.

The biggest challenge before all the contenders is to eschew divisive politics and hateful utterances which could fracture the fragile peace in the country. Odinga should take the lead through campaigns of forgiveness, reconciliation, inter-ethnic harmony, unity and amity, while Kenyatta and Ruto must learn to exercise verbal restraint during their defence in The Hague and back home.

There is a need to watch out for early warning signals among both the dominant Luo communities in the Kibera slum or among the mesh of Kalenjin, Maasai and Kikuyu communities in the Rift Valley Province. The time has come for forward-looking politics of accountability and inclusion, one that is less abrasive and shuns ethnic divisiveness and impunity. The emergence of such a political spirit would galvanise the confidence of ordinary Kenyans in the political leadership, rekindle patriotism and accelerate the country towards genuine healing leading to a departure from the dysfunctional politics of the past. The world is watching.

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