The Week Ahead from Exclusive Analysis: Protest loom in Cameroon and Morocco

Cameroon

President Biya’s likely re-election in the 9 October vote increases risk of violent protests this month in Douala and elsewhere.

Event: On 9 October 2011, President Biya, in power for nearly 30 years, will contest the presidential vote against 22 opposition candidates.

Implications: Biya is likely to secure another mandate, despite growing discontent over his removal of constitutional term limits in 2008, rising living costs, high youth unemployment and pervasive corruption. The opposition would be unlikely to win even in the event of fair elections, as it faces leadership struggles. However, due to a long track record of rigged elections, the opposition is likely to contest results, urging supporters to protest and confront security forces, particularly in the Bamenda-Bafoussam-Douala triangle. On 29 September in Douala, the commercial capital, following an opposition accusation of electoral irregularities, security forces arrested gunmen in military uniform who had opened fire and blocked the Wouri bridge, a major transit route, for several hours.

In reaction, the Army will likely respond to quell the riots, presenting severe risks of collateral harm and property damage. Opposition supporters are likely to target assets associated with the government and Biya's ruling RPDC party. Protests will also likely result in disruption to traffic in commercial hubs such as Yaounde, Douala, Maroua and Bamenda.

Morocco

Weekly protests starting 2 October are likely to grow in size in Casablanca and Rabat ahead of November parliamentary elections.

Event: On 25 September, 10,000 people attended a rally in Sbata, Casablanca, organised by the 20 February movement. Two thousand protesters also marched from the Akkari neighbourhood to the parliament building in Rabat.

Implications: The 25 September protest was the largest protest since the government approved constitutional reforms on 2 July. Opposition groups such as the 20 February Movement have rejected the reforms for being insufficient, and announced that weekly protests will be held until parliamentary elections in November. Protests on 2 October are likely to be peaceful, with protesters gathering in lower income neighbourhoods in Casablanca, Rabat, Tangiers and Marrakech before marching towards government and municipal buildings, for example along Avenue Mohammad V in Rabat. Casablanca will likely see the largest protests, focused around the municipal building.

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