Monday, April 27, 2015

Hydropolitics of the Nile: Reassurance or Realignment?

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The decision-making process for approving new projects on the Nile has large implications for the countries on its banks. If water is used upstream, less water is available for the downstream countries – particularly Egypt and Sudan, who currently claim rights to all of the water.

The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), due to be ratified over the weekend (May 14, 2011), would have set up a new, independent body to authorise Nile projects. Six of the nine states bordering the Nile have signed the agreement (six of ten now that Sudan is more properly Sudan and South Sudan). This, in theory, is enough to bring it into force – although in practice not having Egypt, Sudan, and South Sudan on board would of course prove difficult.

But over the weekend Ethiopia, the driving force behind the signing of the CFA, stepped back from final ratification. Ethiopia’s ambassador to Egypt is quoted as saying: "Ethiopia, having seen the current situation in Egypt, where they need to establish their own government and go through a democratic process of election of their president, sees that it is sane and wise to wait for Egypt and give her time.”

Indeed, there seems to be a new era of potential cooperation emerging. There are rumours that Egypt has given its approval to a dam that Ethiopia intends to build, and Egyptian interim Prime Minister, Essam Sharaf, has offered to develop Egypt’s trading relationship with Ethiopia. It seems that, with Hosni Mubarak gone, there may be a chance to rebuild diplomatic relations between Egypt and Ethiopia.

This change in attitude seems to demonstrate very positive steps forwards from both sides. However, other riparian states should perhaps view these developments with caution. If Ethiopia can bring Egypt to the table to develop a reasonable solution to the stalemate observed at the end of negotiations for the CFA this would be very welcome. However, a new bilateral relationship favouring Ethiopia that halts progress with the CFA could, in the long run, be destructive.

There are a number of states that would benefit from a more equitable distribution of Nile resources. Until now use of the Nile has been dominated by Egypt and Sudan. Adding Ethiopia into this mix to create a decision-making quartet - with Sudan split into North and South - does not address the problem of fair allocation of water resources. The decision making process needs to be move away from bilateral – or quadrilateral – deals struck between individual states and towards a Nile Basin-wide solution. The CFA presents the opportunity to set up an independent decision-making body, and this aspiration should not be forgotten.


I do not believe Ethiopia is adding into a decision-making quartet. It is neither to the interest of Ethiopia nor the other riparian nations to forget the aspiration of CFA. I suppose , in the meantime, one can clearly observe that Ethiopia has shown the Nile is not only to serve 4 nations but as many African nations as possible.
It is to be praised and to be supported that Egypt has started a positive dialog with Ethiopia. It is well known fact that the former Egyptian leaders an elites haven been blocking any development activity in Ethiopia, specially if it has any thing to with The Blue Nile, which contributes 85% of the Nile flow, when it is suffering a lot due to drought and hunger. This promising achievement could turn Ethiopia’s history and its relation with Egypt must be encouraged. Of course Ethiopia would be relieved if Egypt starts a positive dialog and think of bilateral development co-operation. This could open major opportunity that Ethiopia could then concentrate on her development efforts rather than spending her resources to fight enemies which want her remain underdeveloped. What has been taking place in Addis between the two leaders this week is a very promising development co-operation which will benefit both the people of Egypt and Ethiopia.
This has nothing to do with a possibility of ignoring the CFA agreement and harm any of our African neighbors. It is a good news to hear that Egypt is not any more against the construction of The Renaissance Dam. That is a project which has a complete support of the other riparian nations. Ethiopia also wishes Egypt like all the other African nations a better future too.